Ball State +9 3.3* play
Ohio is a below average team every way you look at it. This is a team that lost to Western Michigan by just as much as Ball State did, but on paper we are looking at a 6-4 team at home vs. a 3-7 team on the road. Ball State has some extra rest here which was not the case in their last game where they had just 4 days to prepare before going on the road to face Western Michigan. I don't know how they do that to these kids, and the result was Ball State missed covering the spread by 32 points. Ohio hosted the same situation last week when Kent State had to go on the road with 4 days of preparation and the result was a 21 point cover by Ohio as they won 27-0. Definitely a good spot to take Ball State with some line value for those reasons alone, but there is more.
Ball State is out of the MAC West which has gone 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS against the MAC East. Take out Eastern Michigan who is 0-3 SU&ATS and you have a 9-1 record and 8-2 ATS. These are not just short term trends these trends go back previous years as well. The recruiting in the MAC West is superior to what teams see out of the MAC East. While Ohio does not necessarily fit that assumption we still feel better in backing Ball State here.
Ohio is an average team, and Derrius Vick is having a nice season, but he's not blowing anyone away. 10 TD to 6 INT's, a 134 QB rating, but a 113 in conference play which is a pretty significant drop. He's got just 5 TD to 8 interceptions in conference plays. He's not elite enough to take advantage of Ball State's biggest weakness which is the pass defense. Vick also has -173 rushing yards and just under 400 rushing yards with a less than 2 yards per carry. Not impressive at all. I actually like Ball State's QB a bit better. Riley Neal has 13 TD's to 3 INT's and nearly 400 yards rushing with more than a 4 yard per carry average. Ohio also worse on special teams, and are penalized 7.6 times per game compared with Ball State at 3.8. Ball State RB's have not fumbled the ball once this year just 1 of 9 FBS teams who can claim that. This team seems to be well coached, and I like the extra rest and other situations. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset considering Ohio is already in a bowl game, and has Northern Illinois next week.
